The Syrian Civil War, spanning over 13 years, has concluded with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The rebel victory, bolstered by strategic backing from Turkey, has reshaped the balance of power in the region. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s decade-long support for Syrian opposition forces has positioned Turkey as a significant influencer in post-Assad Syria.
Turkey’s involvement has been pivotal in orchestrating this outcome, from facilitating rebel coordination to maintaining open supply lines. Ankara’s actions mark a strategic victory for Erdoğan and offer Turkey significant leverage in Syria’s reconstruction and governance.
Turkey and Syria share a complex history defined by periods of cooperation and rivalry. Before the Syrian uprising in 2011, Erdoğan and Assad enjoyed close personal and political ties. However, as the civil war escalated, Erdoğan’s calls for reform and moderation were disregarded by Assad, souring their relationship.
“Our wish is for our neighbor Syria to attain the peace and tranquility it has been longing for over the past 13 years,” Erdoğan said in a speech on Saturday as Damascus fell and Assad fled. He was speaking in Gaziantep, a city near the Syrian border, home to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. His audience—both refugees and Turkish citizens—likely viewed Assad’s fall as a shared victory.
Throughout the Syrian civil war, Turkey consistently opposed Assad’s regime. The rivalry reportedly had a personal dimension: Erdoğan and Assad were once close friends, even vacationing with their families. But in 2011, as the civil war began, Erdoğan urged Assad to be gentle with the rebels. Assad ignored the plea, angering Erdoğan, who then became one of Assad’s staunchest critics.
Turkey subsequently shifted its stance, actively supporting Syrian rebels through the Syrian National Army and indirectly facilitating Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a controversial Islamist group instrumental in Assad’s downfall. This multifaceted support underscores Turkey’s strategic calculations to secure its regional influence and address domestic challenges, including the management of millions of Syrian refugees.
Erdoğan hinted at this when he said, “The Damascus regime never realized the value of the hand Turkey extended.” Last year, Turkey reportedly reached out to Assad to negotiate, offering to cut off rebel supply lines. Assad refused a decision that might have sealed his fate. Instead, the rebels coordinated with Ankara; the results are now evident.
Erdoğan has outlined Turkey’s next steps:
- Refugee Repatriation and Domestic Relief
Turkey is home to over 3.5 million Syrian refugees, a demographic that has strained its economy and fueled political tensions. The return of refugees, now made feasible by Assad’s departure, is expected to ease domestic pressures and bolster Erdoğan’s political standing.
- Economic Opportunities
Syria’s reconstruction offers a lucrative prospect for Turkish businesses, particularly in construction. Erdoğan’s government, with deep ties to Turkey’s construction sector, is well-positioned to dominate rebuilding efforts, further strengthening Ankara’s economic and political footprint.
- Shifting Regional Power Dynamics
The diminished roles of Russia and Iran in Syria create an opening for Turkey to assert itself as a key regional player. Russia’s focus on the Ukraine conflict and Iran’s overstretched resources limits their ability to counterbalance Turkish influence in post-Assad Syria.
Michael Stephens, a Middle East analyst, emphasizes, “Turkey’s calculated engagement in Syria is a textbook example of Erdoğan leveraging regional instability for strategic gains. This could redefine Ankara’s role in Middle Eastern geopolitics.”
A 2023 Pew Research report revealed that 62% of Turks viewed Syrian refugees as an economic burden, highlighting the domestic urgency for Erdoğan to address the issue through repatriation efforts.
Apart from Assad, Russia and Iran are significant losers in the aftermath of the Syrian conflict.
- Russia: Having intervened in 2015 to save Assad’s regime and establish military bases, Russia now faces waning influence as its attention shifts to Ukraine. Offering asylum to Assad underscores Moscow’s retreat and its dented regional prestige.
- Iran: A staunch Assad ally through proxies like Hezbollah, Iran’s influence has eroded as ongoing conflicts with Israel stretch its resources. This weakened position could embolden its adversaries and destabilize its proxy networks.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, remains a contentious actor in Syria’s future. Despite its role in Assad’s ouster, HTS faces scrutiny due to its extremist roots and human rights violations. Its governance, rooted in Islamic law, challenges Syria’s multi-ethnic and multi-religious landscape.
Turkey’s triumph in Syria marks a significant milestone, but challenges remain. The country’s ability to maintain influence will hinge on fostering stability, ensuring inclusive governance, and addressing international concerns over HTS’s role. For now, Erdoğan has positioned Turkey as a central player in a reshaped Middle East, with risks and opportunities on the horizon.
