Syria, a country devastated by over a decade of civil war, stands at a pivotal moment. The removal of Bashar al-Assad has shifted the spotlight onto the Syrian rebels, whose ability to shape the country’s future depends heavily on external support. However, global powers remain divided on their priorities for Syria, ranging from demilitarization to democratization, with some focusing on preventing an ISIS resurgence. This lack of consensus risks prolonging instability in a region fraught with complexities.
The Syrian rebels, fragmented and often at odds internally, rely on external backing to consolidate their position. Aid, investments, and security guarantees are essential, yet they come with strings attached, dictated by the geopolitical ambitions of sponsoring nations. The rebels need cohesive international support to establish governance or stability.
Turkey hosts over 3 million Syrian refugees, with many concentrated near the border. Ankara has introduced policies to incentivize returns, such as offering one-way tickets to Syria. Refugee families often send young men to assess the situation before committing to a full return, reflecting deep-seated uncertainties.
Turkey’s objectives go beyond repatriation. President Erdogan’s government seeks to weaken Kurdish groups, both within Turkey and across the border in Syria. Kurdish factions, supported by the U.S., are viewed as existential threats by Ankara. Erdogan has launched military strikes on Kurdish positions, complicating relations with Western allies and heightening tensions during Syria’s transitional phase.
Israel’s Israel’s strategy in Syria centers on dismantling remnants of the Assad regime and countering Iranian influence. Israeli strikes have targeted military sites and Israeli forces are preparing to remain throughout winter on Mount Hermon — a strategic peak within a buffer zone that has existed for decades but has been seized by Israel following the collapse of the Assad regime.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached out to Syrian rebels with a clear condition: they must not ally with Iran. Netanyahu announced that Israel’s military has temporarily taken control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, asserting that the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria has “collapsed” in the wake of the rebel takeover.
Netanyahu stated that he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to enter the buffer zone and secure “commanding positions nearby” from the Israeli-occupied part of the Golan. “We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” he emphasized.
Arab countries have cautiously welcomed regime change in Syria but are insistent on preserving its sovereignty. Many remain wary of Islamic political movements, which they perceive as threats to their own regimes. Behind the scenes, Arab governments are engaging with Syrian factions while grappling with the broader implications of the Arab Spring, which continues to influence political discourse in the region.
The U.S. has recalibrated its approach to Syria, moving from labeling certain rebel leaders as terrorists to engaging with them diplomatically. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to Turkey highlights Washington’s intent to leverage Ankara as a key intermediary.
The U.S.’s goals include preventing an ISIS resurgence, maintaining a military presence in southern Syria, and supporting Kurdish allies. However, these ambitions face opposition from Iraq, where anti-American sentiment is growing. Additionally, the reliance on Kurdish factions creates friction with Turkey, complicating Washington’s broader regional strategy.
Europe’s response to Syria is overshadowed by internal challenges, including the war in Ukraine and concerns over a potential shift in U.S. policy under Donald Trump’s possible return. Germany, which hosts 1 million Syrian refugees, has committed €8 million in humanitarian aid but remains cautious about facilitating returns. European nations are divided on repatriation policies, reflecting broader uncertainties about Syria’s stability and future.
Unlike Russia and Iran, China did not militarily support Assad but provided diplomatic backing. Beijing’s investments, including $3 billion in Syria’s oil and gas sectors, underscore its economic priorities. Syria’s inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative positions China as a key player in the country’s reconstruction. However, Beijing’s emphasis on peace and political stability contrasts with the militarized approaches of other powers.
The competing interests of global powers in Syria highlight the risks of uncoordinated strategies. Without collaboration, these divergences could deepen the country’s instability, exacerbating humanitarian crises and fueling extremism. Experts warn that Syria’s fragmentation could spill over into neighboring regions, creating broader security challenges.
Syria’s crossroads present both challenges and opportunities. The success of its rebels and the region’s stability depends on coordinated international efforts. Yet, the diverse agendas of global powers threaten to undermine progress, prolonging Syria’s suffering and delaying its path to recovery. For Syria to rebuild, global actors must transcend their differences and prioritize the needs of its people above geopolitical rivalries.
